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Naft Al-Janoob vs Al Shorta — Iraqi League 2020

Naft Al-Janoob
Naft Al-Janoob
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Al Shorta
Al Shorta
12/30/2023Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 12Al Faihaa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Naft Al-Janoob22%
×Draw27%
Al Shorta51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naft Al-Janoob
0.83
Al Shorta
1.44

Al Shorta creates 73% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 109 away

creates per match

Naft Al-Janoob
0.87
Al Shorta
1.76

allows per match

Naft Al-Janoob
1.12
Al Shorta
0.79

finishing

Naft Al-Janoob+0.00on par
Al Shorta+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft Al-Janoob ↓

Al Shorta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–115%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Naft Al-Janoob or draw
49%
Naft Al-Janoob or Al Shorta
73%
Draw or Al Shorta
78%

Winning margin

Naft Al-Janoob wins by 2+
7%
Al Shorta wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Naft Al-Janoob 1+ goals
56%
Naft Al-Janoob 2+ goals
20%
Naft Al-Janoob 3+ goals
5%
Al Shorta 1+ goals
76%
Al Shorta 2+ goals
42%
Al Shorta 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Naft Al-Janoob (draw refunded)
30%
Al Shorta (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft Al-Janoob at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.12 · 90 matches

Al Shorta away — creates 1.76, concedes 0.79 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft Al-Janoob attack 0.87 + Al Shorta defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.83

Al Shorta attack 1.76 + Naft Al-Janoob defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Naft Al-Janoob scores more
22%
level
27%
Al Shorta scores more
51%

Al Shorta at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Al Shorta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Naft Al-Janoob 0–1 Al Shorta

Al Shorta beat Naft Al-Janoob 1-0 in Iraqi League on December 30, 2023.

The match was played at Al Faihaa Stadium in Basra.