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Al Shorta vs Naft Al-Janoob — Iraqi League 2020

Al Shorta
Al Shorta
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Naft Al-Janoob
Naft Al-Janoob
6/27/2024Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 35Al-Shaab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Al Shorta55%
×Draw26%
Naft Al-Janoob19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Shorta
1.54
Naft Al-Janoob
0.78

Al Shorta creates 97% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 93 away

creates per match

Al Shorta
1.84
Naft Al-Janoob
0.88

allows per match

Al Shorta
0.68
Naft Al-Janoob
1.24

finishing

Al Shorta+0.00on par
Naft Al-Janoob+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Shorta ↓

Naft Al-Janoob →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Al Shorta or draw
81%
Al Shorta or Naft Al-Janoob
74%
Draw or Naft Al-Janoob
45%

Winning margin

Al Shorta wins by 2+
29%
Naft Al-Janoob wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Al Shorta 1+ goals
79%
Al Shorta 2+ goals
45%
Al Shorta 3+ goals
20%
Naft Al-Janoob 1+ goals
54%
Naft Al-Janoob 2+ goals
18%
Naft Al-Janoob 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Al Shorta (draw refunded)
74%
Naft Al-Janoob (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Shorta at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.68 · 111 matches

Naft Al-Janoob away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.24 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Shorta attack 1.84 + Naft Al-Janoob defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.54

Naft Al-Janoob attack 0.88 + Al Shorta defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Al Shorta scores more
55%
level
26%
Naft Al-Janoob scores more
19%

Al Shorta at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Al Shorta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Shorta vs Naft Al-Janoob

Al Shorta beat Naft Al-Janoob 1-0 in Iraqi League on June 27, 2024.

The match was played at Al-Shaab Stadium in Bagdad.