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Naestved vs Aarhus Fremad — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Naestved
Naestved
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Aarhus Fremad
Aarhus Fremad
11/10/20242nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 15MTM Service Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Naestved33%
×Draw25%
Aarhus Fremad42%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naestved
1.29
Aarhus Fremad
1.49

Aarhus Fremad creates 16% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 80 away

creates per match

Naestved
1.44
Aarhus Fremad
1.65

allows per match

Naestved
1.33
Aarhus Fremad
1.15

finishing

Naestved+0.00on par
Aarhus Fremad+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naestved ↓

Aarhus Fremad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Naestved or draw
58%
Naestved or Aarhus Fremad
75%
Draw or Aarhus Fremad
67%

Winning margin

Naestved wins by 2+
14%
Aarhus Fremad wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Naestved 1+ goals
72%
Naestved 2+ goals
37%
Naestved 3+ goals
14%
Aarhus Fremad 1+ goals
77%
Aarhus Fremad 2+ goals
44%
Aarhus Fremad 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Naestved (draw refunded)
44%
Aarhus Fremad (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naestved at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.33 · 43 matches

Aarhus Fremad away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.15 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naestved attack 1.44 + Aarhus Fremad defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.29

Aarhus Fremad attack 1.65 + Naestved defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Naestved scores more
33%
level
25%
Aarhus Fremad scores more
42%

Aarhus Fremad at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Aarhus Fremad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2nd Division - Group 1: Naestved 1–0 Aarhus Fremad

Naestved beat Aarhus Fremad 1-0 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on November 10, 2024.

The match was played at MTM Service Park in Næstved.