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Aarhus Fremad vs Naestved — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Aarhus Fremad
Aarhus Fremad
FT
7 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Naestved
Naestved
S. Baekgard 85'
J. Beluli 78'
M. Kirchheiner 73'
M. de Claville Berthelsen 30', 6' (pen)
E. Egerton 24'
M. Kubel 17'
5/3/20252nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Promotion Group - 3Riisvangen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Aarhus Fremad50%
×Draw24%
Naestved26%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aarhus Fremad
1.70
Naestved
1.14

Aarhus Fremad creates 49% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 43 away

creates per match

Aarhus Fremad
2.01
Naestved
1.19

allows per match

Aarhus Fremad
1.09
Naestved
1.40

finishing

Aarhus Fremad+0.00on par
Naestved+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aarhus Fremad ↓

Naestved →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Aarhus Fremad or draw
74%
Aarhus Fremad or Naestved
76%
Draw or Naestved
50%

Winning margin

Aarhus Fremad wins by 2+
27%
Naestved wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Aarhus Fremad 1+ goals
82%
Aarhus Fremad 2+ goals
51%
Aarhus Fremad 3+ goals
24%
Naestved 1+ goals
68%
Naestved 2+ goals
32%
Naestved 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Aarhus Fremad (draw refunded)
66%
Naestved (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aarhus Fremad at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.09 · 78 matches

Naestved away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.40 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aarhus Fremad attack 2.01 + Naestved defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.70

Naestved attack 1.19 + Aarhus Fremad defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Aarhus Fremad scores more
50%
level
24%
Naestved scores more
26%

Aarhus Fremad at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Aarhus Fremad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
M. de Claville BerthelsenPenalty
17'
M. Kubel
24'
E. Egerton
29'
C. Friedrich
30'
M. de Claville Berthelsen
41'
M. Kristensen← A. Nehme
45+1'
M. de Claville Berthelsen
46'
A. Holvad← O. Hjaltason
46'
J. Beluli← J. Beluli
46'
J. Gertsen← E. Rusborg
62'
S. Baekgard← S. Baekgard
62'
S. Denius← S. Denius
69'
C. Friedrich← M. Rugaard
73'
M. Kirchheiner
76'
K. Lunding← J. Thorsen
76'
M. Host← M. Christiansen
76'
M. Villadsen← M. Villadsen
78'
J. Beluli
85'
S. Baekgard

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aarhus Fremad vs Naestved

Aarhus Fremad beat Naestved 7-0 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on May 3, 2025.

Goals: M. de Claville Berthelsen (6' pen, 30'), M. Kubel (17'), E. Egerton (24'), M. Kirchheiner (73'), J. Beluli (78'), S. Baekgard (85').

The match was played at Riisvangen Stadion in Århus.