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Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi vs Kyustendil — Third League - Southwest 2018

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
FT
1 – 1
Kyustendil
Kyustendil
10/2/2021Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 10Stadion Dobroslavtsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi34%
×Draw26%
Kyustendil41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
1.29
Kyustendil
1.44

Kyustendil creates 12% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 114 away

creates per match

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
1.35
Kyustendil
1.56

allows per match

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
1.32
Kyustendil
1.24

finishing

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi+0.00on par
Kyustendil+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi ↓

Kyustendil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi or draw
59%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi or Kyustendil
74%
Draw or Kyustendil
66%

Winning margin

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi wins by 2+
15%
Kyustendil wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 1+ goals
72%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 2+ goals
37%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 3+ goals
14%
Kyustendil 1+ goals
76%
Kyustendil 2+ goals
42%
Kyustendil 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi (draw refunded)
45%
Kyustendil (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.32 · 78 matches

Kyustendil away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.24 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi attack 1.35 + Kyustendil defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.29

Kyustendil attack 1.56 + Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi scores more
34%
level
26%
Kyustendil scores more
41%

Kyustendil at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kyustendil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 1–1 Kyustendil

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi and Kyustendil drew 1-1 in Third League - Southwest on October 2, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Dobroslavtsi in Dobroslavtsi.