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Kyustendil vs Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi — Third League - Southwest 2018

Kyustendil
Kyustendil
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
10/8/2022Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 10Stadion Osogovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Kyustendil66%
×Draw19%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kyustendil
2.23
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
0.95

Kyustendil creates 135% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 78 away

creates per match

Kyustendil
2.09
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
1.09

allows per match

Kyustendil
0.81
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
2.37

finishing

Kyustendil+0.00on par
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyustendil ↓

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Kyustendil or draw
85%
Kyustendil or Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
81%
Draw or Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
34%

Winning margin

Kyustendil wins by 2+
43%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Kyustendil 1+ goals
89%
Kyustendil 2+ goals
65%
Kyustendil 3+ goals
38%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 1+ goals
61%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 2+ goals
25%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Kyustendil (draw refunded)
82%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyustendil at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.81 · 112 matches

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.37 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyustendil attack 2.09 + Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.23

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi attack 1.09 + Kyustendil defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Kyustendil scores more
66%
level
19%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi scores more
15%

Kyustendil at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Kyustendil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kyustendil vs Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

Kyustendil beat Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 4-0 in Third League - Southwest on October 8, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Osogovo in Kyustendil.