Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 3–3 CSKA Sofia II

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

CSKA Sofia II

9/4/2022

Third League - Southwest · Southwest - 5Stadion Dobroslavtsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi38%

×Draw25%

CSKA Sofia II37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nadezhda DobroslavtsiExpected goals in this matchCSKA Sofia II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.38

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

1.40

CSKA Sofia II

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 78 home / 34 away

1.35

creates per match

1.44

1.32

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

1.35

CSKA Sofia II

1.44

allows per match

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

1.32

CSKA Sofia II

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi+0.00on par

CSKA Sofia II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi ↓

CSKA Sofia II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi or draw

63%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi or CSKA Sofia II

75%

Draw or CSKA Sofia II

62%

Winning margin

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi wins by 2+

17%

CSKA Sofia II wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 1+ goals

75%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 2+ goals

41%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 3+ goals

17%

CSKA Sofia II 1+ goals

75%

CSKA Sofia II 2+ goals

40%

CSKA Sofia II 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi (draw refunded)

51%

CSKA Sofia II (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.32 · 78 matches

CSKA Sofia II away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.44 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi attack 1.35 + CSKA Sofia II defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.40

CSKA Sofia II attack 1.44 + Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi scores more

38%

level

25%

CSKA Sofia II scores more

37%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff