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CSKA Sofia II vs Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi — Third League - Southwest 2018

CSKA Sofia II
CSKA Sofia II
FT
6 – 0
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
11/20/2022Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 16Sportna baza Pancharevo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

CSKA Sofia II67%
×Draw19%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA Sofia II
2.26
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
0.92

CSKA Sofia II creates 146% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 78 away

creates per match

CSKA Sofia II
2.15
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
1.09

allows per match

CSKA Sofia II
0.74
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
2.37

finishing

CSKA Sofia II+0.00on par
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Sofia II ↓

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

CSKA Sofia II or draw
86%
CSKA Sofia II or Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
81%
Draw or Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
33%

Winning margin

CSKA Sofia II wins by 2+
44%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

CSKA Sofia II 1+ goals
89%
CSKA Sofia II 2+ goals
66%
CSKA Sofia II 3+ goals
39%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 1+ goals
60%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 2+ goals
23%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

CSKA Sofia II (draw refunded)
83%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Sofia II at home — creates 2.15, concedes 0.74 · 34 matches

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.37 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Sofia II attack 2.15 + Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.26

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi attack 1.09 + CSKA Sofia II defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

CSKA Sofia II scores more
67%
level
19%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi scores more
14%

CSKA Sofia II at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "CSKA Sofia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: CSKA Sofia II 6–0 Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

CSKA Sofia II beat Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 6-0 in Third League - Southwest on November 20, 2022.

The match was played at Sportna baza Pancharevo in Sofia.