Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 0–1 CSKA 1948 Sofia III

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

FT

0 – 1

CSKA 1948 Sofia III

5/27/2023

Third League - Southwest · Southwest - Relegation Round - 11Stadion Dobroslavtsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi44%

×Draw25%

CSKA 1948 Sofia III31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nadezhda DobroslavtsiExpected goals in this matchCSKA 1948 Sofia III

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.27

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

1.57

CSKA 1948 Sofia III

1.27

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi creates 24% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 52 away

1.35

creates per match

1.21

1.32

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

1.35

CSKA 1948 Sofia III

1.21

allows per match

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

1.32

CSKA 1948 Sofia III

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi+0.00on par

CSKA 1948 Sofia III+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi ↓

CSKA 1948 Sofia III →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi or draw

69%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi or CSKA 1948 Sofia III

75%

Draw or CSKA 1948 Sofia III

56%

Winning margin

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi wins by 2+

22%

CSKA 1948 Sofia III wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 1+ goals

79%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 2+ goals

46%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 3+ goals

21%

CSKA 1948 Sofia III 1+ goals

72%

CSKA 1948 Sofia III 2+ goals

36%

CSKA 1948 Sofia III 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi (draw refunded)

59%

CSKA 1948 Sofia III (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.32 · 78 matches

CSKA 1948 Sofia III away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.79 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi attack 1.35 + CSKA 1948 Sofia III defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.57

CSKA 1948 Sofia III attack 1.21 + Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi scores more

44%

level

25%

CSKA 1948 Sofia III scores more

31%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff