CSKA 1948 Sofia III 3–1 Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

CSKA 1948 Sofia III

FT

3 – 1

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

4/19/2023

Third League - Southwest · Southwest - Relegation Round - 5Stadion Vitosha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

CSKA 1948 Sofia III54%

×Draw22%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CSKA 1948 Sofia IIIExpected goals in this matchNadezhda Dobroslavtsi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.22

CSKA 1948 Sofia III

1.94

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

1.22

CSKA 1948 Sofia III creates 59% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 78 away

1.51

creates per match

1.09

1.34

allows per match

2.37

creates per match

CSKA 1948 Sofia III

1.51

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

1.09

allows per match

CSKA 1948 Sofia III

1.34

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

2.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CSKA 1948 Sofia III+0.00on par

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA 1948 Sofia III ↓

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

CSKA 1948 Sofia III or draw

76%

CSKA 1948 Sofia III or Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

78%

Draw or Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

46%

Winning margin

CSKA 1948 Sofia III wins by 2+

31%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

CSKA 1948 Sofia III 1+ goals

86%

CSKA 1948 Sofia III 2+ goals

58%

CSKA 1948 Sofia III 3+ goals

30%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 1+ goals

70%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 2+ goals

34%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

CSKA 1948 Sofia III (draw refunded)

69%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA 1948 Sofia III at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.34 · 53 matches

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.37 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA 1948 Sofia III attack 1.51 + Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.94

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi attack 1.09 + CSKA 1948 Sofia III defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

CSKA 1948 Sofia III scores more

54%

level

22%

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi scores more

24%

CSKA 1948 Sofia III at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "CSKA 1948 Sofia III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff