Nacka Iliria 5–1 Ljungsbro: Result & Stats

Nacka Iliria

FT

5 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Ljungsbro

8/16/2024

Division 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 17Fisksätra IP 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Nacka Iliria57%

×Draw20%

Ljungsbro23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nacka IliriaExpected goals in this matchLjungsbro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.38

1.48

Nacka Iliria

2.38

Ljungsbro

1.48

Nacka Iliria creates 61% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 13 away

1.67

creates per match

1.38

1.58

allows per match

3.08

creates per match

Nacka Iliria

1.67

Ljungsbro

1.38

allows per match

Nacka Iliria

1.58

Ljungsbro

3.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nacka Iliria+0.00on par

Ljungsbro+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nacka Iliria ↓

Ljungsbro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Nacka Iliria or draw

77%

Nacka Iliria or Ljungsbro

80%

Draw or Ljungsbro

43%

Winning margin

Nacka Iliria wins by 2+

36%

Ljungsbro wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Nacka Iliria 1+ goals

91%

Nacka Iliria 2+ goals

68%

Nacka Iliria 3+ goals

42%

Ljungsbro 1+ goals

77%

Ljungsbro 2+ goals

43%

Ljungsbro 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Nacka Iliria (draw refunded)

71%

Ljungsbro (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nacka Iliria at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.58 · 33 matches

Ljungsbro away — creates 1.38, concedes 3.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nacka Iliria attack 1.67 + Ljungsbro defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.38

Ljungsbro attack 1.38 + Nacka Iliria defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Nacka Iliria scores more

57%

level

20%

Ljungsbro scores more

23%

Nacka Iliria at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Nacka Iliria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff