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Ljungsbro vs Nacka Iliria — Division 2 - Södra Svealand 2019

Ljungsbro
Ljungsbro
FT
4 – 4
HT: 1 – 3
Nacka Iliria
Nacka Iliria
4/21/2024Division 2 - Södra SvealandDivision 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 4Maxivallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ljungsbro47%
×Draw24%
Nacka Iliria29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ljungsbro
1.72
Nacka Iliria
1.30

Ljungsbro creates 32% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 33 away

creates per match

Ljungsbro
1.31
Nacka Iliria
1.15

allows per match

Ljungsbro
1.46
Nacka Iliria
2.12

finishing

Ljungsbro+0.00on par
Nacka Iliria+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ljungsbro ↓

Nacka Iliria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Ljungsbro or draw
71%
Ljungsbro or Nacka Iliria
76%
Draw or Nacka Iliria
53%

Winning margin

Ljungsbro wins by 2+
25%
Nacka Iliria wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ljungsbro 1+ goals
82%
Ljungsbro 2+ goals
51%
Ljungsbro 3+ goals
25%
Nacka Iliria 1+ goals
73%
Nacka Iliria 2+ goals
37%
Nacka Iliria 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Ljungsbro (draw refunded)
62%
Nacka Iliria (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ljungsbro at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

Nacka Iliria away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.12 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ljungsbro attack 1.31 + Nacka Iliria defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.72

Nacka Iliria attack 1.15 + Ljungsbro defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ljungsbro scores more
47%
level
24%
Nacka Iliria scores more
29%

Ljungsbro at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ljungsbro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Södra Svealand: Ljungsbro 4–4 Nacka Iliria

Ljungsbro and Nacka Iliria drew 4-4 in Division 2 - Södra Svealand on April 21, 2024.

The match was played at Maxivallen in Ljungsbro.