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Nacka Iliria vs IFK Eskilstuna — Division 2 - Södra Svealand 2019

Nacka Iliria
Nacka Iliria
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
IFK Eskilstuna
IFK Eskilstuna
4/26/2024Division 2 - Södra SvealandDivision 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 5Fisksätra IP 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Nacka Iliria50%
×Draw22%
IFK Eskilstuna28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nacka Iliria
2.04
IFK Eskilstuna
1.50

Nacka Iliria creates 36% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 60 away

creates per match

Nacka Iliria
1.67
IFK Eskilstuna
1.43

allows per match

Nacka Iliria
1.58
IFK Eskilstuna
2.42

finishing

Nacka Iliria+0.00on par
IFK Eskilstuna+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nacka Iliria ↓

IFK Eskilstuna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Nacka Iliria or draw
72%
Nacka Iliria or IFK Eskilstuna
78%
Draw or IFK Eskilstuna
50%

Winning margin

Nacka Iliria wins by 2+
29%
IFK Eskilstuna wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Nacka Iliria 1+ goals
87%
Nacka Iliria 2+ goals
60%
Nacka Iliria 3+ goals
33%
IFK Eskilstuna 1+ goals
78%
IFK Eskilstuna 2+ goals
44%
IFK Eskilstuna 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Nacka Iliria (draw refunded)
64%
IFK Eskilstuna (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nacka Iliria at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.58 · 33 matches

IFK Eskilstuna away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.42 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nacka Iliria attack 1.67 + IFK Eskilstuna defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.04

IFK Eskilstuna attack 1.43 + Nacka Iliria defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Nacka Iliria scores more
50%
level
22%
IFK Eskilstuna scores more
28%

Nacka Iliria at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Nacka Iliria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nacka Iliria vs IFK Eskilstuna

Nacka Iliria and IFK Eskilstuna drew 1-1 in Division 2 - Södra Svealand on April 26, 2024.

The match was played at Fisksätra IP 1 in Saltsjöbaden.