IFK Eskilstuna 0–2 Nacka Iliria: Result & Stats

IFK Eskilstuna

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Nacka Iliria

4/1/2023

Division 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 1Tunavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

IFK Eskilstuna47%

×Draw22%

Nacka Iliria31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IFK EskilstunaExpected goals in this matchNacka Iliria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.53

IFK Eskilstuna

1.94

Nacka Iliria

1.53

IFK Eskilstuna creates 27% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 33 away

1.76

creates per match

1.15

1.92

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

IFK Eskilstuna

1.76

Nacka Iliria

1.15

allows per match

IFK Eskilstuna

1.92

Nacka Iliria

2.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IFK Eskilstuna+0.00on par

Nacka Iliria+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Eskilstuna ↓

Nacka Iliria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

IFK Eskilstuna or draw

69%

IFK Eskilstuna or Nacka Iliria

78%

Draw or Nacka Iliria

53%

Winning margin

IFK Eskilstuna wins by 2+

26%

Nacka Iliria wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

IFK Eskilstuna 1+ goals

86%

IFK Eskilstuna 2+ goals

58%

IFK Eskilstuna 3+ goals

30%

Nacka Iliria 1+ goals

78%

Nacka Iliria 2+ goals

45%

Nacka Iliria 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

IFK Eskilstuna (draw refunded)

61%

Nacka Iliria (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Eskilstuna at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.92 · 59 matches

Nacka Iliria away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.12 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Eskilstuna attack 1.76 + Nacka Iliria defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.94

Nacka Iliria attack 1.15 + IFK Eskilstuna defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

IFK Eskilstuna scores more

47%

level

22%

Nacka Iliria scores more

31%

IFK Eskilstuna at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "IFK Eskilstuna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff