Nacional 0–1 FC Porto: Result & Stats

Nacional

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

FC Porto

M. Taremi 20'

4/18/2021

Primeira Liga · Round 27Estádio da Madeira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Nacional25%

×Draw26%

FC Porto49%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NacionalExpected goals in this matchFC Porto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

1.48

Nacional

0.97

FC Porto

1.48

FC Porto creates 53% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 23 away

1.11

creates per match

1.70

1.26

allows per match

0.82

creates per match

Nacional

1.11

FC Porto

1.70

allows per match

Nacional

1.26

FC Porto

0.82

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nacional+0.13scores more

FC Porto+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nacional ↓

FC Porto →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–113%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Nacional or draw

51%

Nacional or FC Porto

74%

Draw or FC Porto

75%

Winning margin

Nacional wins by 2+

9%

FC Porto wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Nacional 1+ goals

62%

Nacional 2+ goals

25%

Nacional 3+ goals

7%

FC Porto 1+ goals

77%

FC Porto 2+ goals

43%

FC Porto 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Nacional (draw refunded)

34%

FC Porto (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nacional at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.26 · 17 matches

FC Porto away — creates 1.70, concedes 0.82 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nacional attack 1.11 + FC Porto defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.97

FC Porto attack 1.70 + Nacional defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Nacional scores more

25%

level

26%

FC Porto scores more

49%

FC Porto at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FC Porto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

A. Marchesín

FC Porto · G

8.2

Match Events

15'

K. Gorré← Marco Matias

20'

M. Taremi↳ J. Corona

42'

João Camacho

56'

Kenji Gorre

66'

B. Róchez← João Camacho

66'

Rúben Micael← Éber Bessa

72'

M. Marega← J. Corona

73'

Toni Martínez← Sérgio Oliveira

73'

Romário Baró← M. Taremi

80'

Nanu← Z. Sanusi

81'

Wilson Manafá

87'

Nuno Borges← L. Azouni

87'

M. Rouai← A. Alhassan

87'

Diogo Leite← L. Díaz

90'

Mabrouk Rouai

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NacionalFC

Overview

38%Possession62%

7Total Shots9

2Corners2

13Fouls16

Shots

7Total Shots9

3On Target3

3Off Target4

1Blocked2

2Inside Box7

5Outside Box2

Passing

38%Possession62%

292Total Passes462

194Accurate Passes374

66%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls16

3Yellow Cards1

4Offsides7