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Nacional vs FC Porto — Taça de Portugal 2018

Nacional
Nacional
AET
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
FC Porto
FC Portoadvanced
1/12/2021Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · Round of 16Estádio da Madeira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Nacional25%
×Draw22%
FC Porto53%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nacional
1.32
FC Porto
2.00

FC Porto creates 52% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 23 away

creates per match

Nacional
2.20
FC Porto
2.61

allows per match

Nacional
1.40
FC Porto
0.43

finishing

Nacional+0.00on par
FC Porto+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nacional ↓

FC Porto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Nacional or draw
47%
Nacional or FC Porto
78%
Draw or FC Porto
75%

Winning margin

Nacional wins by 2+
11%
FC Porto wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Nacional 1+ goals
73%
Nacional 2+ goals
38%
Nacional 3+ goals
15%
FC Porto 1+ goals
86%
FC Porto 2+ goals
59%
FC Porto 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Nacional (draw refunded)
32%
FC Porto (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nacional at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

FC Porto away — creates 2.61, concedes 0.43 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nacional attack 2.20 + FC Porto defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 1.32

FC Porto attack 2.61 + Nacional defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Nacional scores more
25%
level
22%
FC Porto scores more
53%

FC Porto at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "FC Porto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nacional vs FC Porto

Nacional and FC Porto drew 2-2 in Taça de Portugal on January 12, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio da Madeira in Ilha da Madeira.