Nacional 3–1 Casa Pia: Result & Stats

Nacional

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Casa Pia

3/16/2025

Primeira Liga · Round 26Estádio da Madeira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Nacional45%

×Draw27%

Casa Pia29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NacionalExpected goals in this matchCasa Pia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.07

Nacional

1.41

Casa Pia

1.07

Nacional creates 32% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 14 away

1.14

creates per match

0.89

1.25

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Nacional

1.14

Casa Pia

0.89

allows per match

Nacional

1.25

Casa Pia

1.68

+0.06on par

finishing

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

Nacional+0.06on par

Casa Pia-0.18scores less

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nacional ↓

Casa Pia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Nacional or draw

71%

Nacional or Casa Pia

73%

Draw or Casa Pia

55%

Winning margin

Nacional wins by 2+

21%

Casa Pia wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Nacional 1+ goals

76%

Nacional 2+ goals

41%

Nacional 3+ goals

17%

Casa Pia 1+ goals

66%

Casa Pia 2+ goals

29%

Casa Pia 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Nacional (draw refunded)

61%

Casa Pia (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nacional at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.25 · 15 matches

Casa Pia away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.68 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nacional attack 1.14 + Casa Pia defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.41

Casa Pia attack 0.89 + Nacional defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Nacional scores more

45%

level

27%

Casa Pia scores more

29%

Nacional at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff