Casa Pia 1–0 Nacional: Result & Stats

Casa Pia

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Nacional

10/25/2024

Primeira Liga · Round 9Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Casa Pia37%

×Draw27%

Nacional37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Casa PiaExpected goals in this matchNacional

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

Casa Pia

1.28

Nacional

1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 15 away

0.92

creates per match

0.95

1.61

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Casa Pia

0.92

Nacional

0.95

allows per match

Casa Pia

1.61

Nacional

1.64

+0.26scores more than expected

finishing

-0.35scores less than expected

finishing

Casa Pia+0.26scores more

Nacional-0.35scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Casa Pia ↓

Nacional →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Casa Pia or draw

63%

Casa Pia or Nacional

73%

Draw or Nacional

63%

Winning margin

Casa Pia wins by 2+

16%

Nacional wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Casa Pia 1+ goals

72%

Casa Pia 2+ goals

37%

Casa Pia 3+ goals

14%

Nacional 1+ goals

72%

Nacional 2+ goals

37%

Nacional 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Casa Pia (draw refunded)

50%

Nacional (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Casa Pia at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.61 · 11 matches

Nacional away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.64 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Casa Pia attack 0.92 + Nacional defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.28

Nacional attack 0.95 + Casa Pia defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Casa Pia scores more

37%

level

27%

Nacional scores more

37%

Casa Pia at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Casa Pia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff