Nacional 8–1 Caravel: Result & Stats

Nacional

FT

8 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Caravel

4/28/2026

Division di Honor · Relegation - 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Nacional63%

×Draw17%

Caravel20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NacionalExpected goals in this matchCaravel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.87

1.61

Nacional

2.87

Caravel

1.61

Nacional creates 78% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 28 away

3.10

creates per match

1.57

1.65

allows per match

2.64

creates per match

Nacional

3.10

Caravel

1.57

allows per match

Nacional

1.65

Caravel

2.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nacional+0.00on par

Caravel+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nacional ↓

Caravel →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–15%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

64%36%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Nacional or draw

80%

Nacional or Caravel

83%

Draw or Caravel

37%

Winning margin

Nacional wins by 2+

43%

Caravel wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Nacional 1+ goals

94%

Nacional 2+ goals

77%

Nacional 3+ goals

53%

Caravel 1+ goals

80%

Caravel 2+ goals

48%

Caravel 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Nacional (draw refunded)

76%

Caravel (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nacional at home — creates 3.10, concedes 1.65 · 60 matches

Caravel away — creates 1.57, concedes 2.64 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nacional attack 3.10 + Caravel defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 2.87

Caravel attack 1.57 + Nacional defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Nacional scores more

63%

level

17%

Caravel scores more

20%

Nacional at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff