Caravel 0–11 Nacional: Result & Stats

Caravel

FT

0 – 11

Nacional

5/2/2022

Division di Honor · Round 18Compleho Deportivo Guillermo Prospero Trinidad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Caravel23%

×Draw19%

Nacional59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CaravelExpected goals in this matchNacional

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

2.48

Caravel

1.50

Nacional

2.48

Nacional creates 65% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 61 away

1.43

creates per match

2.21

2.75

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Caravel

1.43

Nacional

2.21

allows per match

Caravel

2.75

Nacional

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Caravel+0.00on par

Nacional+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caravel ↓

Nacional →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Caravel or draw

41%

Caravel or Nacional

81%

Draw or Nacional

77%

Winning margin

Caravel wins by 2+

10%

Nacional wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

Caravel 1+ goals

78%

Caravel 2+ goals

44%

Caravel 3+ goals

19%

Nacional 1+ goals

92%

Nacional 2+ goals

70%

Nacional 3+ goals

44%

Draw no bet

Caravel (draw refunded)

28%

Nacional (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caravel at home — creates 1.43, concedes 2.75 · 28 matches

Nacional away — creates 2.21, concedes 1.56 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caravel attack 1.43 + Nacional defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.50

Nacional attack 2.21 + Caravel defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Caravel scores more

23%

level

19%

Nacional scores more

59%

Nacional at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff