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Nacional vs AVS — Primeira Liga 2018

Nacional
Nacional
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
AVS
AVS
1/19/2025Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 18Estádio da Madeira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Nacional51%
×Draw25%
AVS24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nacional
1.57
AVS
0.99

Nacional creates 59% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 14 away

creates per match

Nacional
1.14
AVS
0.73

allows per match

Nacional
1.25
AVS
2.00

finishing

Nacional+0.06on par
AVS-0.23scores less

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nacional ↓

AVS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Nacional or draw
76%
Nacional or AVS
75%
Draw or AVS
49%

Winning margin

Nacional wins by 2+
26%
AVS wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Nacional 1+ goals
79%
Nacional 2+ goals
46%
Nacional 3+ goals
21%
AVS 1+ goals
63%
AVS 2+ goals
26%
AVS 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Nacional (draw refunded)
68%
AVS (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nacional at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.25 · 15 matches

AVS away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nacional attack 1.14 + AVS defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.57

AVS attack 0.73 + Nacional defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Nacional scores more
51%
level
25%
AVS scores more
24%

Nacional at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Nacional 3 – 1 AVS

Nacional beat AVS 3-1 in Primeira Liga on January 19, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio da Madeira in Ilha da Madeira.