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AVS vs Nacional — Primeira Liga 2018

AVS
AVS
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Nacional
Nacional
8/10/2024Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 1Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

AVS37%
×Draw27%
Nacional37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AVS
1.27
Nacional
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 15 away

creates per match

AVS
0.91
Nacional
0.95

allows per match

AVS
1.60
Nacional
1.64

finishing

AVS+0.09on par
Nacional-0.35scores less

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AVS ↓

Nacional →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

AVS or draw
63%
AVS or Nacional
73%
Draw or Nacional
63%

Winning margin

AVS wins by 2+
16%
Nacional wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

AVS 1+ goals
72%
AVS 2+ goals
36%
AVS 3+ goals
14%
Nacional 1+ goals
72%
Nacional 2+ goals
36%
Nacional 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

AVS (draw refunded)
50%
Nacional (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AVS at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.60 · 13 matches

Nacional away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.64 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AVS attack 0.91 + Nacional defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.27

Nacional attack 0.95 + AVS defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

AVS scores more
37%
level
27%
Nacional scores more
37%

AVS at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "AVS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AVS 1 – 1 Nacional

AVS and Nacional drew 1-1 in Primeira Liga on August 10, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves in Vila das Aves.