Nacional SP U20 1–2 Ibrachina U20: Result & Stats

Nacional SP U20

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Ibrachina U20

Unknown 72'

Marcus 90+10' (pen)

L. Martins 27'

5/17/2024

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 6Estádio Nicolau Alayon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Nacional SP U2029%

×Draw27%

Ibrachina U2045%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nacional SP U20Expected goals in this matchIbrachina U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.42

Nacional SP U20

1.08

Ibrachina U20

1.42

Ibrachina U20 creates 31% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 24 away

1.00

creates per match

1.83

1.00

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Nacional SP U20

1.00

Ibrachina U20

1.83

allows per match

Nacional SP U20

1.00

Ibrachina U20

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nacional SP U20+0.00on par

Ibrachina U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nacional SP U20 ↓

Ibrachina U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Nacional SP U20 or draw

55%

Nacional SP U20 or Ibrachina U20

73%

Draw or Ibrachina U20

71%

Winning margin

Nacional SP U20 wins by 2+

11%

Ibrachina U20 wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Nacional SP U20 1+ goals

66%

Nacional SP U20 2+ goals

29%

Nacional SP U20 3+ goals

10%

Ibrachina U20 1+ goals

76%

Ibrachina U20 2+ goals

41%

Ibrachina U20 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Nacional SP U20 (draw refunded)

39%

Ibrachina U20 (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nacional SP U20 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Ibrachina U20 away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.17 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nacional SP U20 attack 1.00 + Ibrachina U20 defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.08

Ibrachina U20 attack 1.83 + Nacional SP U20 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Nacional SP U20 scores more

29%

level

27%

Ibrachina U20 scores more

45%

Ibrachina U20 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ibrachina U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

L. Martins

68'

72'

90+10'

MarcusPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff