Ibrachina U20 2–2 Nacional SP U20: Result & Stats

Ibrachina U20

FT

2 – 2

Nacional SP U20

4/12/2024

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 1Ibrachina Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Ibrachina U2061%

×Draw20%

Nacional SP U2019%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ibrachina U20Expected goals in this matchNacional SP U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.18

1.12

Ibrachina U20

2.18

Nacional SP U20

1.12

Ibrachina U20 creates 95% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 5 away

2.76

creates per match

1.20

1.04

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Ibrachina U20

2.76

Nacional SP U20

1.20

allows per match

Ibrachina U20

1.04

Nacional SP U20

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ibrachina U20+0.00on par

Nacional SP U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ibrachina U20 ↓

Nacional SP U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Ibrachina U20 or draw

81%

Ibrachina U20 or Nacional SP U20

80%

Draw or Nacional SP U20

39%

Winning margin

Ibrachina U20 wins by 2+

38%

Nacional SP U20 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Ibrachina U20 1+ goals

89%

Ibrachina U20 2+ goals

64%

Ibrachina U20 3+ goals

37%

Nacional SP U20 1+ goals

67%

Nacional SP U20 2+ goals

31%

Nacional SP U20 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Ibrachina U20 (draw refunded)

77%

Nacional SP U20 (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ibrachina U20 at home — creates 2.76, concedes 1.04 · 25 matches

Nacional SP U20 away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ibrachina U20 attack 2.76 + Nacional SP U20 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.18

Nacional SP U20 attack 1.20 + Ibrachina U20 defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Ibrachina U20 scores more

61%

level

20%

Nacional SP U20 scores more

19%

Ibrachina U20 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Ibrachina U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff