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Nacional PR vs Foz Do Iguacu — Paranaense - 2 2023

Nacional PR
Nacional PR
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Foz Do Iguacu
Foz Do Iguacu
Ryan 90+9' (pen)
Tonny 45+2'
Alyson Motta 44'
Romario 27'
5/19/2024Paranaense - 2Paranaense - 2 · 1st Phase - 3Complexo Esportivo Roberto Brzezinski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Nacional PR40%
×Draw29%
Foz Do Iguacu30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nacional PR
1.18
Foz Do Iguacu
0.98

Nacional PR creates 20% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 14 away

creates per match

Nacional PR
1.06
Foz Do Iguacu
1.07

allows per match

Nacional PR
0.88
Foz Do Iguacu
1.29

finishing

Nacional PR+0.00on par
Foz Do Iguacu+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nacional PR ↓

Foz Do Iguacu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Nacional PR or draw
70%
Nacional PR or Foz Do Iguacu
71%
Draw or Foz Do Iguacu
60%

Winning margin

Nacional PR wins by 2+
17%
Foz Do Iguacu wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Nacional PR 1+ goals
69%
Nacional PR 2+ goals
33%
Nacional PR 3+ goals
12%
Foz Do Iguacu 1+ goals
62%
Foz Do Iguacu 2+ goals
26%
Foz Do Iguacu 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Nacional PR (draw refunded)
57%
Foz Do Iguacu (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nacional PR at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

Foz Do Iguacu away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nacional PR attack 1.06 + Foz Do Iguacu defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.18

Foz Do Iguacu attack 1.07 + Nacional PR defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Nacional PR scores more
40%
level
29%
Foz Do Iguacu scores more
30%

Nacional PR at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Nacional PR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'
Romario
44'
Alyson Motta
45+2'
Tonny
90+9'
RyanPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paranaense - 2: Nacional PR 2–2 Foz Do Iguacu

Nacional PR and Foz Do Iguacu drew 2-2 in Paranaense - 2 on May 19, 2024.

Goals: Romario (27'), Alyson Motta (44'), Tonny (45+2'), Ryan (90+9' pen).

The match was played at Complexo Esportivo Roberto Brzezinski in Campo Mourão, Paraná.