Foz Do Iguacu vs Nacional PR — Paranaense - 2 2025
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 8+ matches
Foz Do Iguacu59%
Nacional PR19%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Foz Do Iguacu creates 92% more chances
Season form · 8 home / 14 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over55
- Under45
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes53
- No47
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Foz Do Iguacu ↓
Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Foz Do Iguacu at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches
Nacional PR away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.79 · 14 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Foz Do Iguacu attack 2.00 + Nacional PR defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.90
Nacional PR attack 0.86 + Foz Do Iguacu defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.99
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 59%?"
Foz Do Iguacu at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 59% does not mean "Foz Do Iguacu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Foz Do Iguacu host Nacional PR on Sunday, 18 May 2025 at 18:30. The match is part of the Paranaense - 2 2025/2026 season.
Match Recap: Foz Do Iguacu vs Nacional PR
Foz Do Iguacu beat Nacional PR 3-2 in Paranaense - 2 on May 18, 2025.
Goals: ? (0', 44', 83', 90+5'), D. Bahia (15').
The match was played at Estádio do ABC in Foz do Iguaçu, Paraná.