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Nacional Potosí vs Libertad — Primera División 2019

Nacional Potosí
Nacional Potosí
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Libertad
Libertad
2/25/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 4Estadio Víctor Agustín Ugarte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Nacional Potosí71%
×Draw17%
Libertad13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nacional Potosí
2.53
Libertad
0.98

Nacional Potosí creates 158% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 18 away

creates per match

Nacional Potosí
2.23
Libertad
0.83

allows per match

Nacional Potosí
1.12
Libertad
2.83

finishing

Nacional Potosí+0.00on par
Libertad+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nacional Potosí ↓

Libertad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Nacional Potosí or draw
87%
Nacional Potosí or Libertad
83%
Draw or Libertad
29%

Winning margin

Nacional Potosí wins by 2+
48%
Libertad wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Nacional Potosí 1+ goals
92%
Nacional Potosí 2+ goals
71%
Nacional Potosí 3+ goals
46%
Libertad 1+ goals
62%
Libertad 2+ goals
26%
Libertad 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Nacional Potosí (draw refunded)
85%
Libertad (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nacional Potosí at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.12 · 129 matches

Libertad away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.83 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nacional Potosí attack 2.23 + Libertad defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.53

Libertad attack 0.83 + Nacional Potosí defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Nacional Potosí scores more
71%
level
17%
Libertad scores more
13%

Nacional Potosí at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Nacional Potosí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nacional Potosí vs Libertad

Nacional Potosí beat Libertad 5-1 in Primera División on February 25, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Víctor Agustín Ugarte in Potosí.