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Libertad vs Nacional Potosí — Primera División 2019

Libertad
Libertad
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Nacional Potosí
Nacional Potosí
7/31/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 21Estadio Gran Mamoré

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Libertad48%
×Draw25%
Nacional Potosí27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Libertad
1.54
Nacional Potosí
1.08

Libertad creates 43% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 131 away

creates per match

Libertad
1.35
Nacional Potosí
1.23

allows per match

Libertad
0.94
Nacional Potosí
1.73

finishing

Libertad+0.00on par
Nacional Potosí+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Libertad ↓

Nacional Potosí →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Libertad or draw
73%
Libertad or Nacional Potosí
75%
Draw or Nacional Potosí
52%

Winning margin

Libertad wins by 2+
24%
Nacional Potosí wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Libertad 1+ goals
79%
Libertad 2+ goals
45%
Libertad 3+ goals
20%
Nacional Potosí 1+ goals
66%
Nacional Potosí 2+ goals
29%
Nacional Potosí 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Libertad (draw refunded)
64%
Nacional Potosí (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Libertad at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

Nacional Potosí away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.73 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Libertad attack 1.35 + Nacional Potosí defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.54

Nacional Potosí attack 1.23 + Libertad defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Libertad scores more
48%
level
25%
Nacional Potosí scores more
27%

Libertad at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Libertad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Libertad vs Nacional Potosí

Libertad beat Nacional Potosí 3-2 in Primera División on July 31, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Gran Mamoré in Trinidad.