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Nacional Potosí vs Fortaleza EC — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Nacional Potosí
Nacional Potosí
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Fortaleza EC
Fortaleza EC
W. Álvarez 90+3'
S. Guerra 70'
M. Prost 37'
F. Callejo 6'
J. Lucero 16'
5/9/2024CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 4Estadio Víctor Agustín Ugarte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Nacional Potosí43%
×Draw27%
Fortaleza EC30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nacional Potosí
1.36
Fortaleza EC
1.08

Nacional Potosí creates 26% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 12 away

creates per match

Nacional Potosí
1.56
Fortaleza EC
1.17

allows per match

Nacional Potosí
1.00
Fortaleza EC
1.17

finishing

Nacional Potosí+0.00on par
Fortaleza EC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nacional Potosí ↓

Fortaleza EC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Nacional Potosí or draw
70%
Nacional Potosí or Fortaleza EC
73%
Draw or Fortaleza EC
57%

Winning margin

Nacional Potosí wins by 2+
20%
Fortaleza EC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Nacional Potosí 1+ goals
74%
Nacional Potosí 2+ goals
39%
Nacional Potosí 3+ goals
16%
Fortaleza EC 1+ goals
66%
Fortaleza EC 2+ goals
29%
Fortaleza EC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Nacional Potosí (draw refunded)
59%
Fortaleza EC (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nacional Potosí at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Fortaleza EC away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nacional Potosí attack 1.56 + Fortaleza EC defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.36

Fortaleza EC attack 1.17 + Nacional Potosí defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Nacional Potosí scores more
43%
level
27%
Fortaleza EC scores more
30%

Nacional Potosí at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Nacional Potosí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
M. ProstNacional PotosíNacional Potosí · F
8.6

Match Events

6'
F. Callejo↳ M. Prost
16'
J. Lucero↳ I. Machuca
37'
M. Prost↳ G. Cristaldo
39'
Yago Pikachu
46'
Tinga← E. Martínez
46'
Moisés← Zé Welison
60'
Pedro Rocha← Yago Pikachu
62'
S. Guerra← L. Pavia
62'
W. Álvarez← G. Cristaldo
66'
Diego Josue Hoyos
67'
P. Azogue← S. Galindo
70'
S. Guerra
71'
T. Pochettino← Matheus Rossetto
72'
Saulo Guerra
73'
K. Andrade← I. Machuca
78'
M. Andia← D. Hoyos
78'
A. Torrico← F. Callejo
90+3'
W. Álvarez↳ M. Prost

Possession

56%Nacional

Shots

21Nacional

Pass accuracy

52%Nacional

Statistics

NacionalFortaleza
Overview
56%Possession44%
21Total Shots10
8Corners2
12Fouls6
Shots
21Total Shots10
10On Target1
8Off Target7
3Blocked2
12Inside Box4
9Outside Box6
Passing
56%Possession44%
491Total Passes386
428Accurate Passes312
87%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
0Saves6
Discipline
12Fouls6
2Yellow Cards1
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Nacional Potosí vs Fortaleza EC

Nacional Potosí beat Fortaleza EC 4-1 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on May 9, 2024.

Goals: F. Callejo (6'), J. Lucero (16'), M. Prost (37'), S. Guerra (70'), W. Álvarez (90+3').

Nacional Potosí controlled possession (56%) and registered 21 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Víctor Agustín Ugarte in Potosí.