Fortaleza EC 5–0 Nacional Potosí: Result & Stats

Fortaleza EC

FT

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Nacional Potosí

I. Machuca 58'

Yago Pikachu 48'

J. Lucero 29', 16'

Hércules 13'

4/10/2024

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 2Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Fortaleza EC79%

×Draw13%

Nacional Potosí8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortaleza ECExpected goals in this matchNacional Potosí

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.86

0.78

Fortaleza EC

2.86

Nacional Potosí

0.78

Fortaleza EC creates 267% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 9 away

2.83

creates per match

0.56

1.00

allows per match

2.89

creates per match

Fortaleza EC

2.83

Nacional Potosí

0.56

allows per match

Fortaleza EC

1.00

Nacional Potosí

2.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortaleza EC+0.00on par

Nacional Potosí+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortaleza EC ↓

Nacional Potosí →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–16%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–16%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Fortaleza EC or draw

92%

Fortaleza EC or Nacional Potosí

87%

Draw or Nacional Potosí

21%

Winning margin

Fortaleza EC wins by 2+

59%

Nacional Potosí wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Fortaleza EC 1+ goals

94%

Fortaleza EC 2+ goals

77%

Fortaleza EC 3+ goals

53%

Nacional Potosí 1+ goals

54%

Nacional Potosí 2+ goals

18%

Nacional Potosí 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Fortaleza EC (draw refunded)

91%

Nacional Potosí (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortaleza EC at home — creates 2.83, concedes 1.00 · 12 matches

Nacional Potosí away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortaleza EC attack 2.83 + Nacional Potosí defence 2.89 → ÷2 → 2.86

Nacional Potosí attack 0.56 + Fortaleza EC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Fortaleza EC scores more

79%

level

13%

Nacional Potosí scores more

8%

Fortaleza EC at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Fortaleza EC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

39

I. Machuca

Fortaleza EC · F

8.9

Match Events

13'

16'

29'

33'

40'

Imanol MachucaGoal cancelled

46'

A. Torrico← O. Duarte

46'

D. Mancilla← H. Leaños

48'

Yago Pikachu↳ T. Pochettino

58'

I. Machuca↳ Yago Pikachu

60'

Tinga← Bruno Pacheco

60'

Pedro Rocha← J. Lucero

60'

Lucas Sasha← Hércules

61'

W. Álvarez← M. Prost

61'

G. Alles← S. Galindo

72'

Pedro Rocha

75'

Luquinhas← Zé Welison

82'

Marinho← Yago Pikachu

86'

L. Pavia← G. Cristaldo

90'

Marinho

90+3'

MarinhoVAR

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FortalezaNacional

Overview

54%Possession46%

18Total Shots4

4Corners3

13Fouls6

Shots

18Total Shots4

11On Target0

6Off Target3

1Blocked1

11Inside Box1

7Outside Box3

Passing

54%Possession46%

425Total Passes363

352Accurate Passes283

83%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

0Saves6

Discipline

13Fouls6

2Yellow Cards0

1Red Cards0

2Offsides0

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Fortaleza EC 5–0 Nacional Potosí

Fortaleza EC beat Nacional Potosí 5-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on April 10, 2024.

Goals: Hércules (13'), J. Lucero (16', 29'), Yago Pikachu (48'), I. Machuca (58').

Fortaleza EC controlled possession (54%) and registered 18 shots to 4.

The match was played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo in Fortaleza, Ceará.

Fortaleza EC vs Nacional Potosí — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Fortaleza EC 5–0 Nacional Potosí