Nacional Asuncion 2–1 Deportivo Recoleta

Nacional Asuncion

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Deportivo Recoleta

I. Bailone 85'

C. R. Santa 50'

A. Wlk 9' (pen)

4/24/2026

Division Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 18Estadio Arsenio Erico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Nacional Asuncion40%

×Draw26%

Deportivo Recoleta35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nacional AsuncionExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Recoleta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.30

Nacional Asuncion

1.41

Deportivo Recoleta

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 99 home / 22 away

1.22

creates per match

1.50

1.10

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Nacional Asuncion

1.22

Deportivo Recoleta

1.50

allows per match

Nacional Asuncion

1.10

Deportivo Recoleta

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nacional Asuncion+0.00on par

Deportivo Recoleta+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nacional Asuncion ↓

Deportivo Recoleta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Nacional Asuncion or draw

65%

Nacional Asuncion or Deportivo Recoleta

74%

Draw or Deportivo Recoleta

60%

Winning margin

Nacional Asuncion wins by 2+

19%

Deportivo Recoleta wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Nacional Asuncion 1+ goals

76%

Nacional Asuncion 2+ goals

41%

Nacional Asuncion 3+ goals

17%

Deportivo Recoleta 1+ goals

73%

Deportivo Recoleta 2+ goals

37%

Deportivo Recoleta 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Nacional Asuncion (draw refunded)

53%

Deportivo Recoleta (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nacional Asuncion at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.10 · 99 matches

Deportivo Recoleta away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.59 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nacional Asuncion attack 1.22 + Deportivo Recoleta defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.41

Deportivo Recoleta attack 1.50 + Nacional Asuncion defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Nacional Asuncion scores more

40%

level

26%

Deportivo Recoleta scores more

35%

Nacional Asuncion at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Nacional Asuncion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

I. Bailone

Nacional Asuncion · F

7.7

Match Events

8'

Sebastian Vargas

8'

Juan FalconPenalty confirmed

9'

A. WlkPenalty

21'

Junior NogueraPenalty cancelled

25'

28'

43'

43'

46'

O. Gaona Lugo← M. Cabrera

46'

D. J. Colman Escobar← J. Santacruz

46'

W. Baez← J. Falcon

46'

R. Dominguez← A. Wlk

50'

B. Ferreira← R. Ortiz

50'

C. R. Santa↳ F. Jara

64'

D. Mosquera← J. Noguera

68'

C. Arrua← R. C. Ramirez Antunez

76'

L. Gonzales← H. A. Benitez

77'

I. Bailone← C. R. Santa

85'

I. Bailone↳ S. Vargas

89'

Facundo Echeguren

90+3'

Carlos Arrua

90+3'

Nicolás Marotta

90'

T. Vidal← P. Rios

90'

H. Lopez← J. Espinola

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NacionalDeportivo

Overview

65%Possession35%

20Total Shots7

1.43Expected Goals (xG)1.11

14Corners4

10Fouls6

Shots

20Total Shots7

6On Target2

8Off Target5

6Blocked1

12Inside Box4

8Outside Box3

Passing

65%Possession35%

517Total Passes287

444Accurate Passes209

86%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls6

3Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

2Offsides1