Nacional Asuncion 1–1 Deportivo Recoleta

Nacional Asuncion

Pens

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Deportivo Recoleta

I. Valdez 85'

K. Parzajuk 45'

3/5/2026

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Qualification Round 1Estadio Arsenio Erico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Nacional Asuncion21%

×Draw23%

Deportivo Recoleta55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nacional AsuncionExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Recoleta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.77

Nacional Asuncion

1.00

Deportivo Recoleta

1.77

Deportivo Recoleta creates 77% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

1.00

creates per match

1.33

2.20

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Nacional Asuncion

1.00

Deportivo Recoleta

1.33

allows per match

Nacional Asuncion

2.20

Deportivo Recoleta

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nacional Asuncion+0.00on par

Deportivo Recoleta+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nacional Asuncion ↓

Deportivo Recoleta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Nacional Asuncion or draw

45%

Nacional Asuncion or Deportivo Recoleta

77%

Draw or Deportivo Recoleta

79%

Winning margin

Nacional Asuncion wins by 2+

8%

Deportivo Recoleta wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Nacional Asuncion 1+ goals

63%

Nacional Asuncion 2+ goals

26%

Nacional Asuncion 3+ goals

8%

Deportivo Recoleta 1+ goals

83%

Deportivo Recoleta 2+ goals

53%

Deportivo Recoleta 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Nacional Asuncion (draw refunded)

28%

Deportivo Recoleta (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nacional Asuncion at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

Deportivo Recoleta away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nacional Asuncion attack 1.00 + Deportivo Recoleta defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Deportivo Recoleta attack 1.33 + Nacional Asuncion defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Nacional Asuncion scores more

21%

level

23%

Deportivo Recoleta scores more

55%

Deportivo Recoleta at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Deportivo Recoleta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

C. Garay

Deportivo Recoleta · M

7.5

Match Events

9'

I. Bailone← C. R. Santa

31'

G. Benitez← T. Gutierrez

45'

Gaston Benitez

45+1'

Juan Franco

45'

K. Parzajuk↳ A. Franco

46'

D. J. Colman Escobar← A. Samudio

46'

R. Prieto← F. Jara

50'

Alexis Canete

70'

I. Piris← P. Rios

70'

H. Lopez← K. Parzajuk

70'

B. Ferreira← A. Gonzalez

79'

H. A. Benitez← J. Feliu

81'

C. Figueredo← F. A. Echeguren Zarza

85'

I. Valdez↳ H. A. Benitez

88'

Hugo Valdez

90+3'

Brahian Ferreira

90'

Jose Antonio Espinola Nunez

90+4'

O. Toledo← N. Ferreira

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NacionalDeportivo

Overview

56%Possession44%

12Total Shots2

1.01Expected Goals (xG)0.14

8Corners1

12Fouls17

Shots

12Total Shots2

6On Target1

4Off Target1

2Blocked0

6Inside Box2

6Outside Box0

Passing

56%Possession44%

401Total Passes326

318Accurate Passes251

79%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

0.93Goals Prevented0.93

Discipline

12Fouls17

3Yellow Cards3

0Offsides1

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Nacional Asuncion 1–1 Deportivo Recoleta

Nacional Asuncion and Deportivo Recoleta drew 1-1 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on March 5, 2026.

Goals: K. Parzajuk (45'), I. Valdez (85').

Nacional Asuncion controlled possession (56%) and registered 12 shots to 2.

The match was played at Estadio Arsenio Erico in Asuncion.

Nacional Asuncion vs Deportivo Recoleta — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Nacional Asuncion 1–1 Deportivo Recoleta