Nação 1–1 Internacional SC: Result & Stats

Nação

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Internacional SC

6/25/2023

Catarinense - 2 · Round 5Arena Joinville

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Nação42%

×Draw28%

Internacional SC30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NaçãoExpected goals in this matchInternacional SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.00

Nação

1.25

Internacional SC

1.00

Nação creates 25% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 14 away

1.28

creates per match

1.00

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Nação

1.28

Internacional SC

1.00

allows per match

Nação

1.00

Internacional SC

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nação+0.00on par

Internacional SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nação ↓

Internacional SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Nação or draw

70%

Nação or Internacional SC

72%

Draw or Internacional SC

58%

Winning margin

Nação wins by 2+

19%

Internacional SC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Nação 1+ goals

71%

Nação 2+ goals

36%

Nação 3+ goals

13%

Internacional SC 1+ goals

63%

Internacional SC 2+ goals

26%

Internacional SC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Nação (draw refunded)

59%

Internacional SC (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nação at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.00 · 25 matches

Internacional SC away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nação attack 1.28 + Internacional SC defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.25

Internacional SC attack 1.00 + Nação defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Nação scores more

42%

level

28%

Internacional SC scores more

30%

Nação at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Nação will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff