Internacional SC 1–0 Nação: Result & Stats

Internacional SC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Nação

8/23/2023

Catarinense - 2 · FinalsEstádio Vidal Ramos Júnior

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Internacional SC41%

×Draw30%

Nação30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internacional SCExpected goals in this matchNação

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

0.94

Internacional SC

1.16

Nação

0.94

Internacional SC creates 23% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 25 away

0.92

creates per match

1.20

0.69

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Internacional SC

0.92

Nação

1.20

allows per match

Internacional SC

0.69

Nação

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internacional SC+0.00on par

Nação+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional SC ↓

Nação →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Internacional SC or draw

70%

Internacional SC or Nação

70%

Draw or Nação

59%

Winning margin

Internacional SC wins by 2+

17%

Nação wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Internacional SC 1+ goals

69%

Internacional SC 2+ goals

32%

Internacional SC 3+ goals

11%

Nação 1+ goals

61%

Nação 2+ goals

24%

Nação 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Internacional SC (draw refunded)

58%

Nação (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional SC at home — creates 0.92, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

Nação away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.40 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional SC attack 0.92 + Nação defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.16

Nação attack 1.20 + Internacional SC defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Internacional SC scores more

41%

level

30%

Nação scores more

30%

Internacional SC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Internacional SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff