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Nação vs Caravaggio — Catarinense - 2 2022

Nação
Nação
FT
1 – 2
Caravaggio
Caravaggio
7/9/2022Catarinense - 2Catarinense - 2 · Round 7Arena Joinville

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Nação42%
×Draw28%
Caravaggio31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nação
1.31
Caravaggio
1.08

Nação creates 21% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 6 away

creates per match

Nação
1.28
Caravaggio
1.17

allows per match

Nação
1.00
Caravaggio
1.33

finishing

Nação+0.00on par
Caravaggio+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nação ↓

Caravaggio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Nação or draw
69%
Nação or Caravaggio
72%
Draw or Caravaggio
58%

Winning margin

Nação wins by 2+
19%
Caravaggio wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Nação 1+ goals
73%
Nação 2+ goals
38%
Nação 3+ goals
14%
Caravaggio 1+ goals
66%
Caravaggio 2+ goals
29%
Caravaggio 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Nação (draw refunded)
58%
Caravaggio (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nação at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.00 · 25 matches

Caravaggio away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nação attack 1.28 + Caravaggio defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.31

Caravaggio attack 1.17 + Nação defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Nação scores more
42%
level
28%
Caravaggio scores more
31%

Nação at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Nação will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nação vs Caravaggio

Caravaggio beat Nação 2-1 in Catarinense - 2 on July 9, 2022.

The match was played at Arena Joinville in Joinville, Santa Catarina.