Caravaggio 0–1 Nação: Result & Stats

Caravaggio

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Nação

8/7/2022

Catarinense - 2 · Quarter-finalsEstádio da Montanha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Caravaggio38%

×Draw30%

Nação32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CaravaggioExpected goals in this matchNação

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.00

Caravaggio

1.10

Nação

1.00

Caravaggio creates 10% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 25 away

0.80

creates per match

1.20

0.80

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Caravaggio

0.80

Nação

1.20

allows per match

Caravaggio

0.80

Nação

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Caravaggio+0.00on par

Nação+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caravaggio ↓

Nação →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Caravaggio or draw

68%

Caravaggio or Nação

70%

Draw or Nação

62%

Winning margin

Caravaggio wins by 2+

15%

Nação wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Caravaggio 1+ goals

67%

Caravaggio 2+ goals

30%

Caravaggio 3+ goals

10%

Nação 1+ goals

63%

Nação 2+ goals

26%

Nação 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Caravaggio (draw refunded)

54%

Nação (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caravaggio at home — creates 0.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Nação away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.40 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caravaggio attack 0.80 + Nação defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.10

Nação attack 1.20 + Caravaggio defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Caravaggio scores more

38%

level

30%

Nação scores more

32%

Caravaggio at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Caravaggio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff