NAC U21 2–3 Heerenveen U21: Result & Stats

NAC U21

FT

2 – 3

Heerenveen U21

11/27/2021

U21 Divisie 1 · Fall Season - 11Sportpark Heksenwiel veld 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

NAC U2136%

×Draw23%

Heerenveen U2141%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NAC U21Expected goals in this matchHeerenveen U21

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.71

NAC U21

1.59

Heerenveen U21

1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 9 away

1.19

creates per match

1.00

2.41

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

NAC U21

1.19

Heerenveen U21

1.00

allows per match

NAC U21

2.41

Heerenveen U21

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NAC U21+0.00on par

Heerenveen U21+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NAC U21 ↓

Heerenveen U21 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

NAC U21 or draw

59%

NAC U21 or Heerenveen U21

77%

Draw or Heerenveen U21

64%

Winning margin

NAC U21 wins by 2+

18%

Heerenveen U21 wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

NAC U21 1+ goals

80%

NAC U21 2+ goals

47%

NAC U21 3+ goals

21%

Heerenveen U21 1+ goals

82%

Heerenveen U21 2+ goals

51%

Heerenveen U21 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

NAC U21 (draw refunded)

47%

Heerenveen U21 (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NAC U21 at home — creates 1.19, concedes 2.41 · 27 matches

Heerenveen U21 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NAC U21 attack 1.19 + Heerenveen U21 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.59

Heerenveen U21 attack 1.00 + NAC U21 defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

NAC U21 scores more

36%

level

23%

Heerenveen U21 scores more

41%

Heerenveen U21 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Heerenveen U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff