Heerenveen U21 0–1 NAC U21: Result & Stats

Heerenveen U21

FT

0 – 1

NAC U21

9/11/2021

U21 Divisie 1 · Fall Season - 2Sportpark Skoatterwâld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Heerenveen U2139%

×Draw22%

NAC U2139%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Heerenveen U21Expected goals in this matchNAC U21

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.79

Heerenveen U21

1.81

NAC U21

1.79

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 26 away

1.20

creates per match

1.69

1.90

allows per match

2.42

creates per match

Heerenveen U21

1.20

NAC U21

1.69

allows per match

Heerenveen U21

1.90

NAC U21

2.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Heerenveen U21+0.00on par

NAC U21+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heerenveen U21 ↓

NAC U21 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Heerenveen U21 or draw

61%

Heerenveen U21 or NAC U21

78%

Draw or NAC U21

61%

Winning margin

Heerenveen U21 wins by 2+

21%

NAC U21 wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Heerenveen U21 1+ goals

84%

Heerenveen U21 2+ goals

54%

Heerenveen U21 3+ goals

27%

NAC U21 1+ goals

83%

NAC U21 2+ goals

53%

NAC U21 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Heerenveen U21 (draw refunded)

51%

NAC U21 (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heerenveen U21 at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

NAC U21 away — creates 1.69, concedes 2.42 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heerenveen U21 attack 1.20 + NAC U21 defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.81

NAC U21 attack 1.69 + Heerenveen U21 defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Heerenveen U21 scores more

39%

level

22%

NAC U21 scores more

39%

Heerenveen U21 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Heerenveen U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff