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NAC U21 vs Feyenoord U21 — U21 Divisie 1 2020

NAC U21
NAC U21
FT
0 – 3
Feyenoord U21
Feyenoord U21
3/11/2023U21 Divisie 1U21 Divisie 1 · Spring Season - 5Sportpark Heksenwiel veld 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

NAC U2124%
×Draw20%
Feyenoord U2156%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NAC U21
1.39
Feyenoord U21
2.20

Feyenoord U21 creates 58% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 69 away

creates per match

NAC U21
1.19
Feyenoord U21
1.99

allows per match

NAC U21
2.41
Feyenoord U21
1.58

finishing

NAC U21+0.00on par
Feyenoord U21+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NAC U21 ↓

Feyenoord U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

NAC U21 or draw
44%
NAC U21 or Feyenoord U21
80%
Draw or Feyenoord U21
76%

Winning margin

NAC U21 wins by 2+
10%
Feyenoord U21 wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

NAC U21 1+ goals
75%
NAC U21 2+ goals
40%
NAC U21 3+ goals
16%
Feyenoord U21 1+ goals
89%
Feyenoord U21 2+ goals
64%
Feyenoord U21 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

NAC U21 (draw refunded)
30%
Feyenoord U21 (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NAC U21 at home — creates 1.19, concedes 2.41 · 27 matches

Feyenoord U21 away — creates 1.99, concedes 1.58 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NAC U21 attack 1.19 + Feyenoord U21 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.39

Feyenoord U21 attack 1.99 + NAC U21 defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

NAC U21 scores more
24%
level
20%
Feyenoord U21 scores more
56%

Feyenoord U21 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Feyenoord U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: NAC U21 vs Feyenoord U21

Feyenoord U21 beat NAC U21 3-0 in U21 Divisie 1 on March 11, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark Heksenwiel veld 1 in Breda.