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Feyenoord U21 vs NAC U21 — U21 Divisie 1 2020

Feyenoord U21
Feyenoord U21
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
NAC U21
NAC U21
5/6/2023U21 Divisie 1U21 Divisie 1 · Spring Season - 12Sportcomplex Varkenoord 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Feyenoord U2159%
×Draw19%
NAC U2122%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Feyenoord U21
2.48
NAC U21
1.48

Feyenoord U21 creates 68% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 26 away

creates per match

Feyenoord U21
2.54
NAC U21
1.69

allows per match

Feyenoord U21
1.28
NAC U21
2.42

finishing

Feyenoord U21+0.00on par
NAC U21+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Feyenoord U21 ↓

NAC U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Feyenoord U21 or draw
78%
Feyenoord U21 or NAC U21
81%
Draw or NAC U21
41%

Winning margin

Feyenoord U21 wins by 2+
38%
NAC U21 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Feyenoord U21 1+ goals
92%
Feyenoord U21 2+ goals
70%
Feyenoord U21 3+ goals
44%
NAC U21 1+ goals
77%
NAC U21 2+ goals
43%
NAC U21 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Feyenoord U21 (draw refunded)
73%
NAC U21 (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Feyenoord U21 at home — creates 2.54, concedes 1.28 · 69 matches

NAC U21 away — creates 1.69, concedes 2.42 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Feyenoord U21 attack 2.54 + NAC U21 defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.48

NAC U21 attack 1.69 + Feyenoord U21 defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Feyenoord U21 scores more
59%
level
19%
NAC U21 scores more
22%

Feyenoord U21 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Feyenoord U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U21 Divisie 1: Feyenoord U21 4–1 NAC U21

Feyenoord U21 beat NAC U21 4-1 in U21 Divisie 1 on May 6, 2023.

The match was played at Sportcomplex Varkenoord 1 in Rotterdam.