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NAC U21 vs Almere City II — U21 Divisie 1 2020

NAC U21
NAC U21
FT
0 – 2
Almere City II
Almere City II
3/19/2022U21 Divisie 1U21 Divisie 1 · Spring Season - 2Sportpark Heksenwiel veld D

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

NAC U2124%
×Draw20%
Almere City II56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NAC U21
1.41
Almere City II
2.22

Almere City II creates 57% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 29 away

creates per match

NAC U21
1.19
Almere City II
2.03

allows per match

NAC U21
2.41
Almere City II
1.62

finishing

NAC U21+0.00on par
Almere City II+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NAC U21 ↓

Almere City II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

NAC U21 or draw
44%
NAC U21 or Almere City II
80%
Draw or Almere City II
76%

Winning margin

NAC U21 wins by 2+
10%
Almere City II wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

NAC U21 1+ goals
76%
NAC U21 2+ goals
41%
NAC U21 3+ goals
17%
Almere City II 1+ goals
89%
Almere City II 2+ goals
65%
Almere City II 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

NAC U21 (draw refunded)
30%
Almere City II (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NAC U21 at home — creates 1.19, concedes 2.41 · 27 matches

Almere City II away — creates 2.03, concedes 1.62 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NAC U21 attack 1.19 + Almere City II defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.41

Almere City II attack 2.03 + NAC U21 defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

NAC U21 scores more
24%
level
20%
Almere City II scores more
56%

Almere City II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Almere City II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U21 Divisie 1: NAC U21 0–2 Almere City II

Almere City II beat NAC U21 2-0 in U21 Divisie 1 on March 19, 2022.

The match was played at Sportpark Heksenwiel veld D in Breda.