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Almere City II vs NAC U21 — U21 Divisie 1 2020

Almere City II
Almere City II
FT
4 – 0
NAC U21
NAC U21
10/23/2021U21 Divisie 1U21 Divisie 1 · Fall Season - 7Yanmar Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Almere City II57%
×Draw20%
NAC U2124%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Almere City II
2.37
NAC U21
1.50

Almere City II creates 58% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 26 away

creates per match

Almere City II
2.31
NAC U21
1.69

allows per match

Almere City II
1.31
NAC U21
2.42

finishing

Almere City II+0.00on par
NAC U21+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almere City II ↓

NAC U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Almere City II or draw
76%
Almere City II or NAC U21
80%
Draw or NAC U21
43%

Winning margin

Almere City II wins by 2+
35%
NAC U21 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Almere City II 1+ goals
91%
Almere City II 2+ goals
68%
Almere City II 3+ goals
42%
NAC U21 1+ goals
78%
NAC U21 2+ goals
44%
NAC U21 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Almere City II (draw refunded)
70%
NAC U21 (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almere City II at home — creates 2.31, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

NAC U21 away — creates 1.69, concedes 2.42 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almere City II attack 2.31 + NAC U21 defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.37

NAC U21 attack 1.69 + Almere City II defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Almere City II scores more
57%
level
20%
NAC U21 scores more
24%

Almere City II at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Almere City II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U21 Divisie 1: Almere City II 4–0 NAC U21

Almere City II beat NAC U21 4-0 in U21 Divisie 1 on October 23, 2021.

The match was played at Yanmar Stadion in Almere.