NAC U21 3–4 ADO Den Haag II: Result & Stats

NAC U21

FT

3 – 4

ADO Den Haag II

4/1/2023

U21 Divisie 1 · Spring Season - 8Sportpark Heksenwiel veld 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

NAC U2134%

×Draw22%

ADO Den Haag II44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NAC U21Expected goals in this matchADO Den Haag II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.89

NAC U21

1.65

ADO Den Haag II

1.89

ADO Den Haag II creates 15% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 55 away

1.19

creates per match

1.36

2.41

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

NAC U21

1.19

ADO Den Haag II

1.36

allows per match

NAC U21

2.41

ADO Den Haag II

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NAC U21+0.00on par

ADO Den Haag II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NAC U21 ↓

ADO Den Haag II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

NAC U21 or draw

56%

NAC U21 or ADO Den Haag II

78%

Draw or ADO Den Haag II

66%

Winning margin

NAC U21 wins by 2+

17%

ADO Den Haag II wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

NAC U21 1+ goals

81%

NAC U21 2+ goals

49%

NAC U21 3+ goals

23%

ADO Den Haag II 1+ goals

85%

ADO Den Haag II 2+ goals

56%

ADO Den Haag II 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

NAC U21 (draw refunded)

44%

ADO Den Haag II (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NAC U21 at home — creates 1.19, concedes 2.41 · 27 matches

ADO Den Haag II away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.11 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NAC U21 attack 1.19 + ADO Den Haag II defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.65

ADO Den Haag II attack 1.36 + NAC U21 defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

NAC U21 scores more

34%

level

22%

ADO Den Haag II scores more

44%

ADO Den Haag II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "ADO Den Haag II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff