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ADO Den Haag II vs NAC U21 — U21 Divisie 1 2020

ADO Den Haag II
ADO Den Haag II
FT
3 – 2
NAC U21
NAC U21
1/28/2023U21 Divisie 1U21 Divisie 1 · Spring Season - 1Sportpark De Aftrap veld 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

ADO Den Haag II46%
×Draw21%
NAC U2133%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ADO Den Haag II
2.15
NAC U21
1.81

ADO Den Haag II creates 19% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 26 away

creates per match

ADO Den Haag II
1.89
NAC U21
1.69

allows per match

ADO Den Haag II
1.93
NAC U21
2.42

finishing

ADO Den Haag II+0.00on par
NAC U21+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ADO Den Haag II ↓

NAC U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

ADO Den Haag II or draw
67%
ADO Den Haag II or NAC U21
79%
Draw or NAC U21
54%

Winning margin

ADO Den Haag II wins by 2+
27%
NAC U21 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

ADO Den Haag II 1+ goals
88%
ADO Den Haag II 2+ goals
63%
ADO Den Haag II 3+ goals
36%
NAC U21 1+ goals
84%
NAC U21 2+ goals
54%
NAC U21 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

ADO Den Haag II (draw refunded)
58%
NAC U21 (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ADO Den Haag II at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.93 · 55 matches

NAC U21 away — creates 1.69, concedes 2.42 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ADO Den Haag II attack 1.89 + NAC U21 defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.15

NAC U21 attack 1.69 + ADO Den Haag II defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

ADO Den Haag II scores more
46%
level
21%
NAC U21 scores more
33%

ADO Den Haag II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "ADO Den Haag II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ADO Den Haag II vs NAC U21

ADO Den Haag II beat NAC U21 3-2 in U21 Divisie 1 on January 28, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark De Aftrap veld 1 in Den Haag.