NAC Breda 1–1 Jong Ajax: Result & Stats

NAC Breda

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Jong Ajax

11/10/2023

Eerste Divisie · Round 14Rat Verlegh Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

NAC Breda52%

×Draw22%

Jong Ajax25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NAC BredaExpected goals in this matchJong Ajax

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.28

NAC Breda

1.92

Jong Ajax

1.28

NAC Breda creates 50% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 148 away

1.80

creates per match

1.48

1.08

allows per match

2.03

creates per match

NAC Breda

1.80

Jong Ajax

1.48

allows per match

NAC Breda

1.08

Jong Ajax

2.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NAC Breda+0.00on par

Jong Ajax+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NAC Breda ↓

Jong Ajax →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

NAC Breda or draw

75%

NAC Breda or Jong Ajax

78%

Draw or Jong Ajax

48%

Winning margin

NAC Breda wins by 2+

30%

Jong Ajax wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

NAC Breda 1+ goals

85%

NAC Breda 2+ goals

57%

NAC Breda 3+ goals

30%

Jong Ajax 1+ goals

72%

Jong Ajax 2+ goals

37%

Jong Ajax 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

NAC Breda (draw refunded)

67%

Jong Ajax (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NAC Breda at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.08 · 91 matches

Jong Ajax away — creates 1.48, concedes 2.03 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NAC Breda attack 1.80 + Jong Ajax defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.92

Jong Ajax attack 1.48 + NAC Breda defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

NAC Breda scores more

52%

level

22%

Jong Ajax scores more

25%

NAC Breda at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "NAC Breda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff