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Jong Ajax vs NAC Breda — Eerste Divisie 2018

Jong Ajax
Jong Ajax
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
NAC Breda
NAC Breda
9/12/2022Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 8Sportpark De Toekomst

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Jong Ajax42%
×Draw23%
NAC Breda35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jong Ajax
1.72
NAC Breda
1.54

Jong Ajax creates 12% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 90 away

creates per match

Jong Ajax
1.91
NAC Breda
1.62

allows per match

Jong Ajax
1.46
NAC Breda
1.53

finishing

Jong Ajax+0.00on par
NAC Breda+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jong Ajax ↓

NAC Breda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Jong Ajax or draw
65%
Jong Ajax or NAC Breda
77%
Draw or NAC Breda
58%

Winning margin

Jong Ajax wins by 2+
22%
NAC Breda wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Jong Ajax 1+ goals
82%
Jong Ajax 2+ goals
51%
Jong Ajax 3+ goals
25%
NAC Breda 1+ goals
79%
NAC Breda 2+ goals
45%
NAC Breda 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Jong Ajax (draw refunded)
55%
NAC Breda (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jong Ajax at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.46 · 147 matches

NAC Breda away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.53 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jong Ajax attack 1.91 + NAC Breda defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.72

NAC Breda attack 1.62 + Jong Ajax defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Jong Ajax scores more
42%
level
23%
NAC Breda scores more
35%

Jong Ajax at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Jong Ajax will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jong Ajax vs NAC Breda

Jong Ajax beat NAC Breda 3-1 in Eerste Divisie on September 12, 2022.

The match was played at Sportpark De Toekomst in Amsterdam-Duivendrecht.