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NAC Breda vs Heerenveen — Eredivisie 2018

NAC Breda
NAC Breda
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Heerenveen
Heerenveen
B. Kemper 74' (pen), 36'
5/11/2026EredivisieEredivisie · Round 33Rat Verlegh Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

NAC Breda42%
×Draw24%
Heerenveen34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NAC Breda
1.60
Heerenveen
1.40

NAC Breda creates 14% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 136 away

creates per match

NAC Breda
1.31
Heerenveen
1.34

allows per match

NAC Breda
1.46
Heerenveen
1.90

finishing

NAC Breda+0.00on par
Heerenveen+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NAC Breda ↓

Heerenveen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

NAC Breda or draw
66%
NAC Breda or Heerenveen
76%
Draw or Heerenveen
58%

Winning margin

NAC Breda wins by 2+
21%
Heerenveen wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

NAC Breda 1+ goals
80%
NAC Breda 2+ goals
47%
NAC Breda 3+ goals
22%
Heerenveen 1+ goals
75%
Heerenveen 2+ goals
41%
Heerenveen 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

NAC Breda (draw refunded)
56%
Heerenveen (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NAC Breda at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.46 · 59 matches

Heerenveen away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.90 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NAC Breda attack 1.31 + Heerenveen defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.60

Heerenveen attack 1.34 + NAC Breda defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

NAC Breda scores more
42%
level
24%
Heerenveen scores more
34%

NAC Breda at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "NAC Breda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
B. KemperNAC BredaNAC Breda · D
8.6

Match Events

36'
B. Kemper
62'
H. Petrov← J. Trenskow
62'
L. Nordas← L. Oyen
69'
Dylan VenteGoal cancelled
73'
Boy KemperPenalty confirmed
74'
B. KemperPenalty
78'
B. Ghalidi← L. Holtby
78'
P. Reulen← M. Soumano
80'
Denis Odoi
81'
N. Courtens← R. Meerveld
81'
E. Gurbuz← V. Zagaritis
82'
J. Candelaria← D. Odoi
90+3'
Nolhan Courtens

Possession

48%NAC

Shots

19NAC

Pass accuracy

49%NAC

Statistics

NACHeerenveen
Overview
48%Possession52%
19Total Shots13
1.86Expected Goals (xG)1.00
7Corners3
10Fouls13
Shots
19Total Shots13
4On Target2
7Off Target2
8Blocked9
11Inside Box9
8Outside Box4
Passing
48%Possession52%
360Total Passes397
258Accurate Passes297
72%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
-0.78Goals Prevented-0.78
Discipline
10Fouls13
1Yellow Cards1
0Offsides3

Eredivisie: NAC Breda 2–0 Heerenveen

NAC Breda beat Heerenveen 2-0 in Eredivisie on May 11, 2026.

Goals: B. Kemper (36', 74' pen).

Heerenveen controlled possession (52%) and registered 13 shots to 19.

The match was played at Rat Verlegh Stadion in Breda.