Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Heerenveen vs NAC Breda — Eredivisie 2018

Heerenveen
Heerenveen
FT
4 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
NAC Breda
NAC Breda
8/31/2024EredivisieEredivisie · Round 4Abe Lenstra Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Heerenveen52%
×Draw23%
NAC Breda25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heerenveen
1.85
NAC Breda
1.22

Heerenveen creates 52% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 57 away

creates per match

Heerenveen
1.53
NAC Breda
0.93

allows per match

Heerenveen
1.50
NAC Breda
2.18

finishing

Heerenveen+0.00on par
NAC Breda+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heerenveen ↓

NAC Breda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Heerenveen or draw
75%
Heerenveen or NAC Breda
77%
Draw or NAC Breda
48%

Winning margin

Heerenveen wins by 2+
29%
NAC Breda wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Heerenveen 1+ goals
84%
Heerenveen 2+ goals
55%
Heerenveen 3+ goals
28%
NAC Breda 1+ goals
70%
NAC Breda 2+ goals
34%
NAC Breda 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Heerenveen (draw refunded)
67%
NAC Breda (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heerenveen at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.50 · 135 matches

NAC Breda away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.18 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heerenveen attack 1.53 + NAC Breda defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.85

NAC Breda attack 0.93 + Heerenveen defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Heerenveen scores more
52%
level
23%
NAC Breda scores more
25%

Heerenveen at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Heerenveen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Heerenveen vs NAC Breda

Heerenveen beat NAC Breda 4-0 in Eredivisie on August 31, 2024.

The match was played at Abe Lenstra Stadion in Heerenveen.