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NAC Breda vs Fortuna Sittard — Eredivisie 2026

NAC Breda
NAC Breda
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Fortuna Sittard
Fortuna Sittard
8/17/2025EredivisieEredivisie · Round 2Rat Verlegh Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

NAC Breda46%
×Draw25%
Fortuna Sittard28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NAC Breda
1.55
Fortuna Sittard
1.15

NAC Breda creates 35% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 32 away

creates per match

NAC Breda
1.26
Fortuna Sittard
0.92

allows per match

NAC Breda
1.37
Fortuna Sittard
1.84

finishing

NAC Breda-0.46scores less
Fortuna Sittard+0.08on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NAC Breda ↓

Fortuna Sittard →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

NAC Breda or draw
72%
NAC Breda or Fortuna Sittard
75%
Draw or Fortuna Sittard
54%

Winning margin

NAC Breda wins by 2+
24%
Fortuna Sittard wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

NAC Breda 1+ goals
79%
NAC Breda 2+ goals
46%
NAC Breda 3+ goals
20%
Fortuna Sittard 1+ goals
68%
Fortuna Sittard 2+ goals
32%
Fortuna Sittard 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

NAC Breda (draw refunded)
62%
Fortuna Sittard (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NAC Breda at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.37 · 15 matches

Fortuna Sittard away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.84 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NAC Breda attack 1.26 + Fortuna Sittard defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.55

Fortuna Sittard attack 0.92 + NAC Breda defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

NAC Breda scores more
46%
level
25%
Fortuna Sittard scores more
28%

NAC Breda at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "NAC Breda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eredivisie: NAC Breda 2–1 Fortuna Sittard

NAC Breda beat Fortuna Sittard 2-1 in Eredivisie on August 17, 2025.

The match was played at Rat Verlegh Stadion in Breda.