Fortuna Sittard 1–0 NAC Breda: Result & Stats

Fortuna Sittard

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

NAC Breda

K. Sierhuis 30'

5/10/2025

Eredivisie · Round 32Fortuna Sittard Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Fortuna Sittard44%

×Draw25%

NAC Breda32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortuna SittardExpected goals in this matchNAC Breda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.31

Fortuna Sittard

1.59

NAC Breda

1.31

Fortuna Sittard creates 21% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 17 away

1.49

creates per match

1.16

1.46

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Fortuna Sittard

1.49

NAC Breda

1.16

allows per match

Fortuna Sittard

1.46

NAC Breda

1.70

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

Fortuna Sittard-0.28scores less

NAC Breda-0.16scores less

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Sittard ↓

NAC Breda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Fortuna Sittard or draw

68%

Fortuna Sittard or NAC Breda

75%

Draw or NAC Breda

56%

Winning margin

Fortuna Sittard wins by 2+

22%

NAC Breda wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Fortuna Sittard 1+ goals

80%

Fortuna Sittard 2+ goals

47%

Fortuna Sittard 3+ goals

21%

NAC Breda 1+ goals

73%

NAC Breda 2+ goals

38%

NAC Breda 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Sittard (draw refunded)

58%

NAC Breda (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Sittard at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.46 · 33 matches

NAC Breda away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.70 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Sittard attack 1.49 + NAC Breda defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.59

NAC Breda attack 1.16 + Fortuna Sittard defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Fortuna Sittard scores more

44%

level

25%

NAC Breda scores more

32%

Fortuna Sittard at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Fortuna Sittard will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

S. van Ottele

Fortuna Sittard · D

7.9

Match Events

30'

K. Sierhuis↳ R. Fosso

45+2'

Kamal Sowah

51'

Mattijs BranderhorstGoal cancelled

56'

L. Rosier← B. Radulović

56'

J. Mitrović← É. Michut

63'

Josip Mitrović

65'

Leo Greiml

66'

S. van Hooijdonk← E. Ómarsson

66'

F. Oldrup Jensen← E. Mahmutović

68'

J. Dahlhaus← K. Peterson

74'

Maximilien BalardPenalty cancelled

86'

K. Kostorz← L. Sauer

86'

R. Paula← C. Valerius

87'

O. Johnson← K. Sierhuis

87'

D. Grujčić← E. Bullaude

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FortunaNAC

Overview

38%Possession62%

10Total Shots6

1.43Expected Goals (xG)0.79

5Corners3

14Fouls10

Shots

10Total Shots6

4On Target4

4Off Target0

2Blocked2

6Inside Box6

4Outside Box0

Passing

38%Possession62%

312Total Passes509

238Accurate Passes425

76%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

0.28Goals Prevented0.28

Discipline

14Fouls10

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1